World Championships - Shanghai [Archive]

selkie

11-07-2011, 11:04 PM

The crystal ball is cloudy this time for me. The Americans and Chinese haven't shown full form this year, the Australian trials seem somehow half-assed, and some very interesting Russians have yet to validate domestic times on the international stage. Add in the Brazilian doping controversy, Yannick Angel's maddening inconsistency (I still think the boy needs to just go race at a high level a bunch more than he has), Germans seeming to quarter-ass it at their Trials, whether the usual Japanese implosion by anyone not named Kitajima will occur on schedule.....

I like that there are maybe four or five total clear favorites (Soni in the 200 breast, Phelps in the 100 fly, Sun in the distance frees, Zige in the 200 fly). Makes for a fun meet ahead,especially with so many swimmers trying to break through before London.

Linny

12-07-2011, 04:08 AM

My crystal ball is usually very unreliable, but I'll have a guess. I predict a really quick meet with GB getting four medals (in the pool). I think we will have quite a few finalists and a few just missing out on medals. Am I being pessimistic?I think so. I think GBR will do much better than 4. In fact I'll double you. All female and no relays. :wave:

Big Nev

12-07-2011, 07:32 AM

I agree with Linny, only medals for the girls

Our lads have a way to go yet, but seem to be getting there.

manic porpoise

12-07-2011, 05:06 PM

I think so. I think GBR will do much better than 4. In fact I'll double you. All female and no relays. :wave:

Eight was my first guess before I decided the glass was half full. I hope you are right. A good swim by someone early on would be great for the team and could help inspire others.

Verity

12-07-2011, 10:36 PM

Tancock's 50 back not worth a medal?

V

Linny

13-07-2011, 12:33 AM

Yeah, yeah, yeah! What's your bid then Verity?

Steve

13-07-2011, 06:43 AM

saturdaynighter

13-07-2011, 10:05 AM

Interestingly LEN magazine has lots of predictions of British medals. The usual suspects lke Tancock Adlington and Miley, but also they've predicted James Goddard to win the 200IM. Can't help thinking mr phelps might have something to say about that. Full list is:

Tancock SILVER in the 50m and 100m back
Goddard GOLD in the 200m IM
Adlington GOLD in the 800m and SILVER in the 400m,
Spofforth GOLD in the 100m back
Simmonds GOLD in the 200m back and
Miley GOLD in the 400m IM

Positive stuff, Steve - does the B letter not work on your keyboard - apart from Becky, I'm sure silvers and bronzes are more likely than golds.

Normally I would overcook my predictions, but have tried to give a more realistic this time round:

I reckon 2 for the lads (Liam surely can't medal in the 100m?) and 5 for the girls (2 from Becky and then one each from Fran, the backstrokers and a random - fly/IM).

We might fluke a girls relay medal, but only if there's a DQ i suspect

selkie

13-07-2011, 12:41 PM

I see Goddard as lucky to make the podium in the 200 IM because it's such a stacked event right now, and the other big guns haven't really shown what they've gotten this year yet. In addition to Phelps, there's also Lochte, Cseh, and Pereira to be concerned with. (Though who knows what's up with the Brazilians right now.)

adamlelean

19-07-2011, 08:46 AM

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/othersports/olympics/8646701/London-2012-Olympics-Keri-Anne-Payne-becomes-first-Great-Britain-athlete-to-qualify-for-2012-Games.html

Big Nev

19-07-2011, 10:14 AM

Nice...well done Kerri-Ann

saturdaynighter

19-07-2011, 01:35 PM

I think it was in a Guardian article saying that Fran Halsall might be the second Becky Adlington.

Have hunted it down - http://www.guardian.co.uk/sport/2011/jul/15/british-swimming-world-championships

Perhaps Kerri-Anne will be the first Kerri-Anne!

Well done Kerri-Anne

clipboard

19-07-2011, 01:47 PM

Nice...well done Kerri-Ann
Just like you an EX Aquabears swimmer.

Big Nev

19-07-2011, 02:49 PM

Just like you an EX Aquabears swimmer.

Aquabears must have been doing something right in the past.

Kerri-Ann was actually a member at the same time as me. She occasionally trained with the Masters to get extra distance in...awesome swimmer.

We are both members of Cheshire Clubs now!!

Verity

19-07-2011, 03:11 PM

Yeah, yeah, yeah! What's your bid then Verity?

8 wouldn't like to speculate on colour. (bit vague though)

V

manic porpoise

19-07-2011, 04:42 PM

For the record, my prediction of four medals didn't include the open water. It also didn't include Kerri-Ann in the 1500 as I wasn't sure if they were permitted to swim non-Olympic events. So, I'm revising my pool total to five.

I'd hope the team are in good spirits after such a good start from Kerri-Ann. Shame that Cassie Patten didn't make the top 10 cut. I read that Cassie does not have another chance to qualify for the Olympic team. Does anyone know why that was her last chance?

Steve

19-07-2011, 04:52 PM

FWIW my prediction was 8 in the pool and 1 in the open water. Well I'm one right so far!

Linny

19-07-2011, 05:15 PM

I'd hope the team are in good spirits after such a good start from Kerri-Ann. Shame that Cassie Patten didn't make the top 10 cut. I read that Cassie does not have another chance to qualify for the Olympic team. Does anyone know why that was her last chance?Sure she can attempt to qualify again next year.

selkie

19-07-2011, 05:32 PM

manic porpoise

19-07-2011, 06:44 PM

I know there are limited spaces for the open water but that's really tough. Very few countries will have managed to qualify two swimmers. With Cassie swimming at Worlds it meant that all other swimmers really had their last chance to qualify for the Olympics months ago when the World qualifying was done.

Not sure I agree with that. The later qualifying should be open to all - with up to two per country. If I recall correctly cycling is doing the one per nation thing too.

Linny

19-07-2011, 07:00 PM

Here's the FINA selection critertia for London Open Water:

http://www.fina.org/H2O/docs/events/london2012/ow/ow_qual.pdf

If I'm reading it correctly, (and I don't speak FINA terribly well) a country/NF only gets to qualify two athletes for London by way of the Shanghai 2011 event if they both finish in the Top Ten there. The alternate qualifying routes are all one per country/NF and you're excluded from the alternate qualifying routes if you previously had a swimmer qualify at Shanghai 2011.I didn't read it like that, but then I don't speak FINA well either.

I thought it meant that you couldn't send two athletes (only 1) to the qualifier next year if you already had a qualifier. Looking at it again though you are clearly right.

saturdaynighter

19-07-2011, 07:41 PM

Does that mean that Cassie has to go through another qualification process, or that she's DQ'd from 2012 completely?

selkie

19-07-2011, 08:40 PM

I want to say the Beijing rules were pretty similar, and going through results a bit, I managed to find this about the second qualifying event:

http://www.swimmingworldmagazine.com/lane9/news/18036.asp

The U.S. will not send any male swimmers to the Beijing Test Event as American swimmer Mark Warkentin (Santa Barbara, Calif.) qualified for the Olympics following his 7th place finish in the men's 10K at the Open Water World Championships in Seville.

And if we could have qualified a second swimmer out of the second qualifier, we definitely would have sent a couple of guys to try.

ChrisThomas

20-07-2011, 09:45 AM

Tom Allen has to be in with a shout of the podium with his recent form!

ambresolaire

20-07-2011, 12:26 PM

Does that mean that Cassie has to go through another qualification process, or that she's DQ'd from 2012 completely?

Unfortunately she is now ruled out of competing in the Open Water at the London Olympics. She can still qualify for the pool events. She made the final in the 800m Freestyle at the Beijing Olympics so qualfiying for London shouldn't be dismissed.

selkie

23-07-2011, 12:13 AM

Hot water conditions before the 25K lead to the withdrawl of the defending men's and women's champions as well as open water legend Thomas Lurz.
Reading between the line, it sounds like USA swimming was strongly encouraging Claire Thompson to scratch as well, and started only because USS's rulebook says they couldn't force her out even though coaching staff thought conditions were unsafe.

http://www.swimmingworldmagazine.com/lane9/news/27616.asp?q=%3Ci%3EUpdated%3C/i%3E---American-Swimmers-Withdraw-From-Today%27s-25K-Open-Water-World-Championship-Race;-USA-Swimming-Releases-Official-Statement

selkie

25-07-2011, 12:35 PM

Thoughts on the pool so far:

1. Alexander Dale Oen goes to the top of my favorite foreign swimmers list for being able to channel emotion into an amazing performance.

2. I'm not sure what to think of the Dunford-Cielo kerfluffle. Poor sportsmanship on Dunford's part, but he was only saying what a lot of people were thinking about Cielo's presence in the meet.

3. Looks like Dana Vollmer picked a good year to focus on the 100 fly. Big breakthrough after knocking around on US national teams through about three different Dara Torres comebacks. (Her first international team was at age 13 for the old Goodwill games where she was the target of boos from Australian fans for a reason I can't recall.) Hopefully, she's still paid enough attention to the 4x200 for a good relay.

4. I wish I could like Federica Pellegrini more, but until evidence comes forth otherwise, she's still the homewrecker in the Luca Marin-Laure Manaudou love triangle to me, and I can't get behind that.

5. The Next Big Thing in American Swimming (aka Missy Franklin) was good for a 52.99 free relay split. Consensus here is that she'd be swimming a couple more events if we'd had our selection meet this year instead of last summer.

6. Speaking of, I still don't think there's a clear favorite in the women's 4x100MR, but a medley relay of Coughlin-Soni-Vollmer-Franklin is sounding quite good right now.

7. Glad to see Shiwen Ye continue to improve on the world stage. I want to see China swim well and swim cleanly, and I tend to think of the Chinese swimmers who do consistently well on the world stage like Sun and Zige as far more likely to be clean than the 'blink and you miss them' freakishly fast time from internal competitions.

8. Gonna be interesting times for the men's 4x100 free relay next year. Can the Aussies stay healthy? (Eamon Sullivan seems to break if you sneeze on him funny) Can the Americans find someone who can consistently go a 47 in textile that's not Nathan Adrian? Will the French learn to stop expecting Alain Bernard to save the day already?

9. Dang, Park cut it close in qualifying in the 400 free.

10. I'm glad to see Paul Biedermann with some solid swims. He was helped more than most by the supersuits, and I think that kind of morphed into 'he's a hack without them' and you can't pick up another WC medal if you're a hack.

11. Unless Amanda Beard wakes up in the 200 breast, I'm inclined to write her off a bit as a swim tourist like she was in Beijing in 2008. I think she managed to swim her way off the medley relay prelims squad- we could probably get 1:06 high/1:07 low out of Jess Hardy instead.

Linny

25-07-2011, 01:08 PM

I love your thoughts Selkie although don't share them re 2. and 4.

Some of mine -

8. Hasn't Natalie Coughlin been just such an amazing advert for swimming and she is still doing it.
7. What is Lochte doing on those turns?
6. Let's forget these boxing style introductions. I don't think they do anyone any favours.
5. French swimming is looking pretty healthy. :-)
4. I hope Fran Halsall is sleeping well and not eating whatever it is that Gemma Spofforth was eating.
3. How much faster can Ye get and what will she do in the 400?
2. Bet Georgia Davies wishes she had made the call room. Good luck to her in the 50.
1. Who is going to step up for GBR as a female 100 breaststroker in time for next year?

selkie

25-07-2011, 01:36 PM

And Coughlin almost walked away from the sport at age 18 from burnout and a bad coaching experience. But instead she gave it a try with coach Teri McKeever, who is like the US coach for baby birds with broken wings, (see also Dana Vollmer, who ended up there after discovering the high volume Florida approach was wrong for her) and has had a most exccellent run.

Is Spofforth still in the running for a place in the medley relay? Be nice if she had one good swim at the meet to build on.

And the lack of a breaststroker for the GB really glares in an era where all the other cool kids and teams can scrounge up a mid-1:07 from somewhere. Too bad that Kenyan girl doesn't seem to have progressed as hoped.

For the women's 1500 free prelims, some surprising names not getting a second swim. Interesting how little room for error there turned out to be in a 16ish minute event. I guess my horses in that race are Ziegler (who's always been a favorite of mine) and Kobach, since it's always nice to see swimmer who aren't from traditional swim powers do well.

I'm not a fan of the boxing intros either- it's like they're trying to force excitement when it's not quite there. I get the concept- the big personality swimmers tend to be kind of scarce once you get past Cielo (who I actually like for his enthusiasm, I just think he should be sitting out a three-ish month suspension right now) and Lochte and reactions can be a little bland compared to, say, Tour de France stage wins. But it just isn't working here and if you're going to do big intros, you should do it in-house and not crib from other sports.

Linny

25-07-2011, 02:07 PM

I'm not a fan of the boxing intros either- it's like they're trying to force excitement when it's not quite there. Like you, I get the principle but I actually think that they are very unfair.

Not everyone enjoys the knowledge that the eyes of the spectators present, and those of the television audience are on them as they undress and prepare. Consider Sun Yang and his 400 freestyle final; being last out, and being a home boy meant a huge ovation. By the time he reached the block everyone else was all but ready to go and it looked to me that he allowed himself to feel rushed and got flustered. Okay, so maybe he wasn't, but he looked it. And okay, so maybe an older wiser man might have been able to control himself better and even enjoy making everyone else wait (although there are rules that govern the time taken and most will be mindful of this), but I just don't think it is a fair way of having athletes approach their blocks and prepare for their race in a sport like swimming.

lane4

25-07-2011, 10:53 PM

8. Hasn't Natalie Coughlin been just such an amazing advert for swimming and she is still doing it.

One of the amazing stats about Natalie is that she has contested 11 events in the Olympic Games and won a medal in all 11. An amazing swimmer.

saturdaynighter

26-07-2011, 07:22 AM

FWIW my prediction was 8 in the pool and 1 in the open water. Well I'm one right so far!

Not sure we're going to even reach the most negative predictions at this rate. Four or five medals for the whole of the pool team might look nearer the mark - 'wild cards' Georgia Davies and Kate Haywood could be our sprint saviours!

Steve

26-07-2011, 11:41 AM

Not sure we're going to even reach the most negative predictions at this rate. Four or five medals for the whole of the pool team might look nearer the mark - 'wild cards' Georgia Davies and Kate Haywood could be our sprint saviours!
Only one of my 8 has swum so far so I'm still confident (I try and convince myself!)

Linny

26-07-2011, 11:54 AM

Only one of my 8 has swum so far so I'm still confident (I try and convince myself!)Me too! :-)

saturdaynighter

26-07-2011, 12:40 PM

Only one of my 8 has swum so far so I'm still confident (I try and convince myself!)

Do we have 7 swimmers left to swim?

Tewson Veste

26-07-2011, 03:49 PM

Discussion on Masters swimming between Mark (Foster) and Claire Bolding in todays summary programme..

Can't keep us 'Not proper' swimmers down these days

Big Nev

26-07-2011, 03:59 PM

Noswimdad

26-07-2011, 04:34 PM

Michael Scott is "satisfied" with the performance to date:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/swimming/14295997.stm

Linny

26-07-2011, 05:08 PM

Do we have 7 swimmers left to swim?I think Steve meant swims, I certainly did!

For the record, my 8 female medals were/are Rebecca Adlington 400 and 800 free (getting pipped in the 400 (like I said earlier in the thread) and judging by the way Friis is swimming the 800 win is looking a bit dodgy), Fran Halsall 50 and 100 free (like I said earlier in the thread), Elizabeth Simmonds 200 backstroke, Jemma Lowe 200 butterfly, Hannah Miley 400 IM and a medal out of Gemma Spofforth or Georgia Davies in the backstroke events (I guess in that sense two swims have gone).

I'm still hopeful, but then I am always hopeful!!!

Oh I do love watching swimming. :love: :) :clear:

saturdaynighter

26-07-2011, 05:51 PM

Michael Scott is "satisfied" with the performance to date:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/swimming/14295997.stm

Good link, Noswimdad

I think Michael Scott looked a bit on the back foot really.

Maybe we peaked 18 months too early and over-hyped our Olympic potential.

There may be trouble ahead - with the whole world catching the same wave that Mr Sweetenham probably spotted in its infancy.

More technique, loads more training and much more mental toughness (all nations have sleep, tiredness, mental exhaustion and food problems) and we might top Beijing.

A bonus, if you can - BE photogenic, happy and positive (a-la-Pellegrini!)

saturdaynighter

26-07-2011, 06:00 PM

I think Steve meant swims, I certainly did!

For the record, my 8 female medals were/are Rebecca Adlington 400 and 800 free (getting pipped in the 400 (like I said earlier in the thread) and judging by the way Friis is swimming the 800 win is looking a bit dodgy), Fran Halsall 50 and 100 free (like I said earlier in the thread), Elizabeth Simmonds 200 backstroke, Jemma Lowe 200 butterfly, Hannah Miley 400 IM and a medal out of Gemma Spofforth or Georgia Davies in the backstroke events (I guess in that sense two swims have gone).

I'm still hopeful, but then I am always hopeful!!!

Oh I do love watching swimming. :love: :) :clear:

Hi, Linny
All good choices and we're not fussed about the quality of the medals, so Becky should be safe for 2.
I think most of the others might be touch-and-go, rather than nailed-on - which doesn't bode well, given the Team's performance so far. Let's hope for a couple of surprises. ;-)

saturdaynighter

26-07-2011, 06:08 PM

Sorry to post so much - but Mark Foster on the BBC is a LEGEND - he is brilliant at explaining everything in a simple way - no edge, no ego.

PERFECTO!

Speedy Gonzalez

26-07-2011, 07:36 PM

Sorry to post so much - but Mark Foster on the BBC is a LEGEND - he is brilliant at explaining everything in a simple way - no edge, no ego.

PERFECTO!

Yes I know, isn't he great? I loved it today when Clare wasn't sure how you call those long trunks male swimmers wear, and ended up calling them "dodgers" (she had "jammy dodgers" in mind!)

Juicy Lucy

27-07-2011, 09:06 AM

Sorry to post so much - but Mark Foster on the BBC is a LEGEND - he is brilliant at explaining everything in a simple way - no edge, no ego.

PERFECTO!

I've sent to his mobile, the following picture of him, currently on the back of all Birmingham's buses. I told him to get back in the pool instead of pussy-footing about on TV. Don't suppose he'll take any notice of me though.

Big Nev

27-07-2011, 09:28 AM

Discussion on Masters swimming between Mark (Foster) and Claire Bolding in todays summary programme..

Can't keep us 'Not proper' swimmers down these days

Thanks for that TV...will watch recording when I get home from work in about an hour.

Watched this....can't believe Claire didn't know about Masters' Swimming. She spent a weekend with Trafford Masters in January at a party. Rachel and I had breakfast with her in the hotel.

I reckon she was just playing Devil's Advocate for the BBC to get the conversation going with Mark F.

saturdaynighter

27-07-2011, 11:33 AM

Great swims by the FLY girls in the semis - was listening to Radio 5 Live who predict 2 medals (at least!!!), but I reckon Ellie and Jemma will have their work cut out tomorrow. Less than a second between the top 7 swimmers - ONE TO WATCH AT 11.49 a.m.

Steve

27-07-2011, 12:10 PM

Juicy Lucy

27-07-2011, 12:35 PM

A bonus, if you can - BE photogenic, happy and positive (a-la-Pellegrini!)

I've always thought how beautiful our girls are.

saturdaynighter

27-07-2011, 01:04 PM

one of my 8 dropped away today - Georgia Davies so I'm down to 7. Still to come in my predictions are:

W 200 fly - either gandy or lowe
W 800 free - Adlington
W 200 Back - Simmonds
M 200IM - Goddard
M 50 back - Tancock
W 100 free - Halsall

And of course Adlington already has her medal over 400 free.

Not predicting any colours!

Plus the medley girls relay after a lunch of baked beans for whoever swims the breaststroke leg!

selkie

27-07-2011, 03:57 PM

1. If anyone's going to break up the expected Phelps-Lochte-Cseh regatta, I think it's going to be the Brazilian.

2. Among the ladies, I also think Ranomi Kromowidjojo has stunning looks.

3. Turns out that Michael Phelps doing butterfly at about 85% still beats out anyone else at 100%. As a University of Michigan alum, I was also glad to see Club Wolverine regular Peng Wu make the podium.

4. Smitty seemed to go backwards through her 200 free races. Looks like we're going to need that 1:56.9 Dagny Knutson reportedly time-trialed in order to have a shot at the Aussies in the 4x200. (and of course for Missy Franklin to like drop another 1:56 and solve world hunger all before getting her unrestricted driver's license. Expectations here are getting quietly much higher for the girl.) Sounds like moving to Greg Troy's program to train has worked well for Dagny.

5. I suspect the race is for 2nd in the women's 200 fly behind Zige, and a highly entertaining race that will be.

6. Is it a good idea for Rice to be swimming 200 fly at that level right now with shoulder issues?

7. The good performances of Friis and Ziegler in the 1500M are starting to make the women's 800 a bit more interesting.

8. At least the Brits are outswimming the Germans, who seem to have nothing left in the tank after making their Trials way too high stakes.

9. Speaking of the above, I still think Britta Steffen has Nicole Kidman's face.

10. Sadly, the male eye candy factor just isn't the same without Ryk Neethling around.

saturdaynighter

27-07-2011, 06:10 PM

Right - recipe for London 2012 - GET BRITISH SWIMMING/COACHES TO TRAIN THEIR SWIMMERS TO DO FAST HEATS ''A LA BEIJING''.
Am not sure how the training schedules work, but too many of our swimmers aren't getting near to the semis.
If they're getting top world rankings at Trials, they ought to be able to get past first base with ease?
That's my small pearl of wisdom.

saturdaynighter

27-07-2011, 07:54 PM

one of my 8 dropped away today - Georgia Davies so I'm down to 7. Still to come in my predictions are:

W 200 fly - either gandy or lowe
W 800 free - Adlington
W 200 Back - Simmonds
M 200IM - Goddard
M 50 back - Tancock
W 100 free - Halsall

And of course Adlington already has her medal over 400 free.

Not predicting any colours!

cool on all of that - except goddard who won't get one i don't think

i reckon two only from tancock, simmonds, lowe and gandy - tis going to be really tough for the fly swimmers tomorrow ("team emotion and worry" versus "team command economy"!) - i wish them luck :-)

Steve

28-07-2011, 06:52 AM

Yes, I'm less confident on jimmy than I was before the meet. still think one of the fly girls Can do it. Fingers crossed!

Steve

28-07-2011, 06:55 AM

Plus the medley girls relay after a lunch of baked beans for whoever swims the breaststroke leg!
My sources tell me that Kate Haywood did a solid time trial so should swim the relay as Stacey tadd didn't show enough on the individual. Georgia Davies to swim the heat probably with Jemma Lowe and Ellen Gandy to come in for final ( assuming they make it). wonder if they'll send Fran put for heats or gamble a bit with Amy smith?

saturdaynighter

28-07-2011, 07:24 AM

My sources tell me that Kate Haywood did a solid time trial so should swim the relay as Stacey tadd didn't show enough on the individual. Georgia Davies to swim the heat probably with Jemma Lowe and Ellen Gandy to come in for final ( assuming they make it). wonder if they'll send Fran put for heats or gamble a bit with Amy smith?

I think they'll have to put Georgia, Fran and Jemma Lowe out in the morning (with Kate) to try and nail the place for the evening. Then they can bring in Ellie and Lizzie for the final. I don't think they'll risk losing a second on Fran's leg unless they're very keen to rest Fran for bigger things.
Too many past relay ****-ups to start playing with it too much (Beijing 4x200m!)

saturdaynighter

28-07-2011, 12:12 PM

one of my 8 dropped away today - Georgia Davies so I'm down to 7. Still to come in my predictions are:

W 200 fly - either gandy or lowe
W 800 free - Adlington
W 200 Back - Simmonds
M 200IM - Goddard
M 50 back - Tancock
W 100 free - Halsall

And of course Adlington already has her medal over 400 free.

Not predicting any colours!

good call, Steve - and well done Ellie Gandy - amazing swim

Fran looks nailed on for Gold or Silver (depending on how excited the Dutch girls are)

6 or 7 pool medals still possible

selkie

28-07-2011, 06:09 PM

1. Kind of a shame that one of Halsall, the Dutch ladies and Coutts are, barring a bronze tie, not going to be on the podium in the 100 free. They're all looking so good.

2. As much as the bandwagon's been growing this year, no one here expected a 1:55.06 from The Next Big Thing. Probably good she's got a somewhat limited program here in order to keep the London expectations from swelling too much.

3. The awards bunnies- kind of evil looking, and I wonder if they're ripping off some Japanese anime or magna since China tends to play loose with copyrighted works.

4. Okay, I was wrong on the 200 fly call. Jiao's decising to do World Military Games a few days ago was apparently the right one.

5. C'mon Rebecca- be nice to have one women's WR at the meet, and her 200BR is the best shot at it.

6. Wonder if the Aussies would have won the 4x200 with Coutts swimming. Though you could also speculate the Americans might have also picked up a little time there if Dana Vollmer was still targeting the 200 free.

7. James Magnusson's just painted a huge target on his back for the next year, but I think he's still got more good swims ahead.

8. No idea who's going to win the men's 200BR, but it's nice to see Lithuania represented in the finals.

9. Imagine what Ryan Lochte could do if he actually went injury and incident free an entire year. Then conceed that it's impossible for him not to have some sort of freak skateboarding, scooter, clown car, tree-climbing, dog-walking... incident in a given calendar year.

10. I think USA swimming might have finally gotten their team to stop saying "It's a fun event. I haven't raced that since summer league when I was nine." when asked how they feel about swimming the stroke 50s.

selkie

29-07-2011, 02:52 PM

Yet more thoughts:

I guess the French guys thought they had something to prove after the 4x100FR. And they did, though they just didn't have the horsepower to neutralize a Lochte 1:44.

I'll always have a bit of a soft spot for Daniel Gyurta for the way he's managed to get himself back on track after having success too young and nearly entirely partying his way out of elite swimming.

In'shallah and the creek don't rise, it's looking like a Coughlin-Soni-Vollmer-Franklin medley relay for the US, which should be fun to watch indeed.

Not really surprised to see Bousquet out in during the heats in the 50 free. He's always had consistency issues at WCs/Olympics while in textile.

Therese Alshammar is still a baby in the sport. Just ask Lars Frolander.

Jeanette Ottesen- next sprint queen with staying power or next Hanna Seppala? And is Herasimenia Olympic-elgible because her doping ban was so long ago and effectively covered by a grandfather clause? Goes to show hat anyone in the 50/100 free who makes the finals can pull off a winning swim.

Thr 800 free is getting interesting. I suspect Ziegler's got something more in the tank and only went quick enough for the heat win. (her time was less than a second quicker than her 800 split in the 1500m). How much Friis has left, I don't know since she's the only one to swim 2x400, 2x1500 and now 2x800. She's had the most swims of any of the big names in the field. I think Sutton's a bit off this meet, so call it Becky v. Kate Z., with Lauren Boyle as a possible spoiler.

NotVeryFast

29-07-2011, 08:45 PM

Steve

29-07-2011, 09:44 PM

I'm really looking forward to seeing what Sun Yang can do in the Mens 1500m. Is it unprecedented for the fastest swimmer's pre-meet QT to be 14 seconds faster than the 2nd fastest qualifier and 19 seconds faster than the 3rd? Breaking Hackett's WR has got to be possible if he is on top form on the day. The most amazing swimmer to watch since Ian Thorpe IMO.
His 800 was faster than hackett's WR from 2005 so he has to have a great chance

I'm just as impressed by James magnussen though, he came across really well in an interview on eurosport earlier today. He claimed to have a 200 p.b of 1:48.6 that he did "messing about in training"! Reckon he'd be more like 1:46 flat!

Curly

30-07-2011, 03:21 PM

I'm astonished that no one has already posted to acknowledge Becky Adlington's fantastic swim in the 800m today. She paced it perfectly and put in an amazing last 100m to take the crown. Many, many congratulations to her.

selkie

30-07-2011, 03:59 PM

I figure that it's most people being away from the computer on Saturdays. Highly entertaining race, and I was glad to see Adlington pull it out at the end.

Wonder if the medley world record would have fallen if the Americans hadn't played it somewhat conservatively with the exchanges.

I suspect that a number of non-American swimmers are rather glad that Missy Franklin had a limited individual program this time around.

Would have liked to see Therese win the 50 fly- she's been so good for so long it's hard to believe she doesn't have more Worlds wins.

Dang, the Australian ladies are a mess right now outside of Coutts, Palmer, Hocking, and Rice. (Turns out that unlike Phelps, Jones needs more than minimal effort to be close to individual gold) Weird to see them so far back and struggling to medal on a medley relay.

What's Sun got in the 1500M? The anticipation, it builds.

Steve

30-07-2011, 04:56 PM

saturdaynighter

30-07-2011, 06:23 PM

I picked Franklin's takeover as safe with a capital S - it was 0.34 which isn't dreadful (it was faster than two of the GB takeovers for example) but quite un-american. Soni was 0.28 too, so there was definitely a WR in there.

The Aussie ladies are well off their usual standards - to the extent they have been beaten by their men, which hasn't happened for a while. NOt a great meet for Australia only 2 golds in total and not a single gold form the ladies and to be honest I can't see them getting any tomorrow - Don't think Rice is up to it in the 400IM yet after her lay off. All about Ye Shiwen vs Hannah Miley for me.

I think Hannah and co will have to swim PB's to get into the final looking at the entry times - 10 swimmers between 4:33 and 4:37.

Any idea why Kate didn't swim the breast leg? I guess she may have had no rights to the berth having not qualified for the 100m.

If I'd been running in last place I think I might have lost the will to takeover quickly. A few more DQ's, though, and we could have got a medal. Bizarrely, I'm sure all the participants of the previous GB record (Rome) were on the scene, barring Lowri - this time 4 seconds slower. For the same time as Rome they'd have got a bronze medal in front of Oz today (if, of course, they were they only team allowed to wear shiney suits!!!).

Becky did real good - maybe everyone expects her to win in style, every time!

spartacus

30-07-2011, 08:55 PM

if lotte friss hadnt raced the 1500 i think she may have pipped adlington.

Steve

31-07-2011, 06:58 AM

Any idea why Kate didn't swim the breast leg? I guess she may have had no rights to the berth having not qualified for the 100m
Kate swam the heat, 1s faster than Stacey in the final. For me there are politics involved.

saturdaynighter

31-07-2011, 11:28 AM

If I was one of Missie Franklin's team mates swimming Back or Free, I think I'd apply for UAE citizenship. Bad enough for GB swimmers going into 2012 (she could easily mop up 4 or 5 individual events), but imagine all your Olympic hopes (including attendance) being blown by a 16 year old team-mate!

The meet has been a bit of a wake-up call for British Swimming, I'd think. A year of apparent progress in world rankings and yet not many real positives in Shanghai - lots of swimmers failing to get past the heats and semis, plenty of the usual finalists but seemingly swamped in the mix this time round - no chances in any of the relays and no medals in any male Olympic events. The worlds youngsters seem to be riding a wave that's about to overtake us.

I'm not sure that the second qualifying meet in June does any of the swimmers any good - I don't think we've mastered the double-dip taper in the UK yet. I wonder if the USA's Worlds dominance was due to them not having 'qualifiers' a few weeks ago as they would normally have.

Having said all that, great swims from Becky, Hannah and Ellie (swimming with class athletes in Oz seems to have done wonders for the latter). Liam usual ebullient self - maybe we should apply to the IOC for the 50 back to be included in 2012!

Back to the training programmes - and hopefully a home games bounce!

selkie

31-07-2011, 02:00 PM

Or alternately that Vancouver is a really nice place to live and train. Both Franklin's parents are Canadian and her Mom apparently asked her way back if she wanted to represent the maple leaf internationally instead since it would be the less stressful way to go.

Speaking of the Canadians, the medal table might not reflect it, but it seems like they swum well here and overachieved a bit compared to projections.

I think Beisel did a nice job there of channeling anger and disappointment at not medaling in the 200 back into something productive. Solid swim for Miley there. For some reason, this is one of those events where only one or two swimmers end up going close to best times in the finals for whatever reason, so it turns into who's feeling gutsy that day and she was.

Yay Therese! Generally classy and always articulate, it's nice to see her with a rare big win among a career of near misses. Hardy seemed gassed, though can't blame meet organizers for not saying "You know there are a number of girls doing the 50 breast- 50 free double; Let's keep those events a bit apart."

Weird to see the US look so vulnerable in the men's medley relay. Next week's summer nationals should help clarify the Ed Moses and Brendan Hansen comeback status and shore up the breaststroke, but as odd as it sounds, we're short a top three backstroker right now unless Lochte steps it up there.

And Sun, what else can you say? Hopefully he stays healthy and happy in the sport because I don't think we've seen the fastest from him yet.

Silver Fox

31-07-2011, 04:56 PM

Well done to the BBC...the coverage has been superb

Steve

31-07-2011, 05:43 PM

Ryan Lochte had some interesting things to say about his week:

http://www.pullbuoy.co.uk/?p=1930

I thought it was a great meet. Gb did ok but plenty to work on. Sun's 1500 was immense; his last 50 was simply insane. There must be a 15:20 something in there for next year

Juicy Lucy

31-07-2011, 06:40 PM

Sun's 1500 was immense; his last 50 was simply insane. There must be a 15:20 something in there for next year

He won't be happy with that. 15:20 won't even get him into the Olympic final.

NotVeryFast

31-07-2011, 08:10 PM

Sun's 1500 was immense
And the thing I like about him is it doesn't look like a doped performance. Cochrane looked to be working about 50% harder than him while trying desperately to keep up. Sun is just so tall and thin, his form drag must be very very low, he makes Hackett look big boned by comparison. Incredible talent, and it's clear no current top level swimmer is going to get anywhere near him.

Steve

31-07-2011, 08:49 PM

He won't be happy with that. 15:20 won't even get him into the Olympic final.
Ha ha, I wrote 13:20 first but got it well wrong when I corrected it. FAIL

Clearly 14:20 is his target.

selkie

31-07-2011, 08:50 PM

And the joke with Ye is that she's proof that the Chinese have given up on the HGH regimes since she's about 5'3" tops while wearing deck shoes. I think that the Chinese are more or less clean internationally at this point, at least as much as anyone is, and they've had a far tidier house than Brazil has over the past two years.

Big Nev

01-08-2011, 08:40 AM

The meet has been a bit of a wake-up call for British Swimming, I'd think. A year of apparent progress in world rankings and yet not many real positives in Shanghai - lots of swimmers failing to get past the heats and semis, plenty of the usual finalists but seemingly swamped in the mix this time round - no chances in any of the relays and no medals in any male Olympic events. The worlds youngsters seem to be riding a wave that's about to overtake us.

Back to the training programmes - and hopefully a home games bounce!

I take a bit of issue withy that Saturday.

This year 22 finalists...not counting open water.

2009 only 15 finalists.
Things have improved.

Highway Star

01-08-2011, 12:33 PM

I thought the Andy, Adrian and Mark were excellent throughout the week. Balding was ok, though her constant references to 'Smiley Miley' etc. etc. do get nauseating.

Sun Yang's 25.9 last 50 in a 1500 was absolutely amazing. This was a real coming out party for the likes of him, Magnussen and Franklin. That was the high point for me.

Low point was Cielo's fake crying in the 50 fly. Cesar - scrunching your face up like a gurning three year and producing no tears doesn't ingratiate you to anyone or make them feel sorry for you. Now, just get on and swim, and take your fake histrionics and throw them where your supplements should have gone.

Tancock showed how important the reaction from the gun is; beat Lacourt by 0.07 at the wall, he was .12 up off the start.

Things have improved for GBR, but I can't see where too many more medals are coming from for 2012. Halsall will likely get one, Simmonds in the 200 and obviously we will lose Liam's medal in the 50, which I'm not sure he can replicate in the 100.

Having said that, compared to a few Olympics ago, I would still put five or six medals as a pretty good showing. Hell, if we did that on the track, we'd never hear the end of it!

Linny

01-08-2011, 02:50 PM

Juicy Lucy

01-08-2011, 03:35 PM

As it says here... The British press conference had all the vitality of a funeral parlour.

http://www.shanghai-fina2011.com/13/2011/0730/928.html

saturdaynighter

01-08-2011, 08:06 PM

I take a bit of issue withy that Saturday.

This year 22 finalists...not counting open water.

2009 only 15 finalists.
Things have improved.

point taken, Big Nev

i hadn't done the stats, but your figures probably make the lack of bronzes even more exposing - from the 22 finalists we managed 5 medals (compared with how many last time from 15 finals?) from some properly class acts - BUT i'd have been more encouraged having 8 bronzes

a sign of our strength in depth must surely be our ability to put out a competitive relay team in any event

some of the nearly-rans definitely will have tried to double-taper (fran, jo-jo, lizzie, jemma, caitlin, gillie) - some to get second or third berths - i rest my case for qualifying events a long long way away from the main event

selkie

01-08-2011, 08:13 PM

I tend to see the Brits as performing right around where expected. Halsall could have been slightly quicker in the 100 free finals and Gemma Spofforth slightly less ill, but there really weren't extreme tanking events like the Germans, French, and Brazilians had. Say what you will about Craig Lord, but his snarky take in France's failure to qualify for the men's 4x100MR final after having the world leader in 2010 was spot on:

"Jeremy Stravius, Hugues Duboscq, Florent Manaudou and Fabien Gilot: how could they miss? It came down to the last two men in, Manaudou collapsing in the closing 10m and losing a body length lead coming into the wall. Still, all ought to have been well, with Gilot to go in just ahead of Britain's Adam Brown and Poland's Konrad Czerniak. The Pole split 47.86, the Brit a 48.36, fine efforts. Gilot? 48.77, slower than five of his standing start solo efforts this season and 0.02sec shy of what it took to match Britain, the last quartet through.

Gilot's problem was clear, his start worse than a standing solo effort from the gun because he was forced to hesitate, determined not to false start and could not be sure if Manaudou had 1, 2 or 3 tiny stroke, his arms barely clearing the surface, left in him, or perhaps whether he would even make it at all. "

saturdaynighter

01-08-2011, 08:38 PM

I watched the first couple of days and then struggled to see any more or see results live because I wasn't at home and there was no Sky and the only internet was on my old phone.

Because I am impatient, I enjoyed Karen Pickering's tweets, and those from Pullbuoy Steve. :)

Thanks, Linney for reminding me about our resident analyst. Great article, Steve - couldn't have written it better myself!
http://www.pullbuoy.co.uk/world-championships/mission-accomplished-for-brits-but-still-questions-to-answer

Good balance and realism ;)