Commonwealth Rankings

[Bazza]

So I decided to analyse the rankings to predict how many medals we might expect next week:

Mens 50m Free - Mark Foster - Silver
Mens 400m Free - Graeme Smith - Bronze
Mens 1500m Free - Graeme Smith - Silver
Mens 1500m Free - Adam Faulkner - Bronze
Mens 100m Back - Gregor Tait - Bronze
Mens 200m Back - Gregor Tait - Bronze
Mens 50m Breast - James Gibson - Gold
Mens 50m Breast - Darren Mew - Silver
Mens 100m Breast - James Gibson - Gold
Mens 100m Breast - Darren Mew - Bronze
Mens 50m Fly - Mark Foster - Silver

Womens 50m Free - Alison Sheppard - Gold
Womens 50m Free - Rosalind Brett - Bronze
Womens 100m Free - Alison Sheppard - Silver
Womens 200m Free - Karen Pickering - Gold
Womens 200m Free - Karen Legg - Bronze
Womens 800m Free - Rebecca Cooke - Silver
Womens 100m Back - Sarah Price - Gold
Womens 200m Back - Sarah Price - Gold
Womens 50m Breast - Zoe Baker - Gold
Womens 50m Fly - Rosalind Brett - Gold
Womens 100m Fly - Georgina Lee - Silver
Womens 200m Fly - Georgina Lee - Silver
Womens 200m Fly - Margaretha Pedder - Bronze

Thats 7 gold, 6 silver and 5 bronze for England,
plus 1 gold, 2 silver and 3 bronze for Scotland.

A few things to point out:

- I don't think there are mens 800m free or womens 1500m free events, but if there were that would increase our medal hopes.

- I'm pretty sure there are 50s for the form strokes but haven't checked.

- I haven't accounted for swimmers who might not be there (I didn't include Robin Francis and Nicola Jackson for obvious reasons), as I haven't cross referenced each one against the selections for each nation.

Overall I think 18 medals for England and 6 for Scotland would be a pretty good result. Does anyone know how many we won in Kuala Lumpur? What do you think of 24 medals (8 of each) in total? Should we (and BS) be pleased with this kind of tally?

[Katie]

Having looked at that, I'm now feeling very hopeful! What do you think our relay chances are?:confused:

[lane4]

My expectation is that Scotland will win 8 medals. I think Ian Edmond will medal in the 200 breast and Alison Sheppard in the 50 fly, thus increasing Scotland's tally to 8 (from the one's Baz mentions), which could improve further to 9 if things were to go really well in one of the relays.

Scotland has only predicted that they will win 2 medals to the Scottish Commonwealth Games Council and sportscotland in a blatant deliberate attempt to downplay their chances and thus look really good when they win much more than that.

The absence of Ray Haas and Robin Francis has helped Scotland's medal chances a lot.

Australia will win this meet but expect England to do very well in the medal count and Canada (with what must be their worst team for many decades) to do very badly medal wise. New Zealand and South Africa are only sending small teams and will offer little resistance bar the odd one or two. I think England will get more medals than Baz predicts (home advantage, own backyard syndrome etc etc) but the results may cloud the real picture of British swimming on the international stage which could well compare not very favourably at all with what are going to be very fast European Championships, Pan-Pacs Championships and US National Championships.

[swimusa]

Does anyone else think it is unfair that at the Commonwealth Games, the power of the United Kingdom is weakened severely with the division of England, Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland? I would rather see a Britain v. Australia head to head at the Games than England v. Australia v. Scotland. Why is there this division?

[Bazza]

Just to say has anyone seen the Commonwealth Games preview on Ceefax? It's worth checking out, if for no reason other than because swimming will surely never take centre stage in the same way again? (Having as it does the highest profile!). There are quotes from Thorpe, Hickman, Faulkner, Price, Turner, Haywood, plus mentions of Gibson and Mew, Foster, Sexton, Baker and for all those Scots out there Sheppard and Smith. I was quite impressed.

And maybe all the fuss being kicked up about Ian Thorpe (even though it's all about 7 golds and size 17 feet!) can only be good for the sport? Personally I can't see him winning seven golds, although the 100m back might be the only one he misses out on. It seems to have been built up so much that if he doesn't win 7 he'll have failed!:eek:

[BigFish]

Originally posted by swimusa
Does anyone else think it is unfair that at the Commonwealth Games, the power of the United Kingdom is weakened severely with the division of England, Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland? I would rather see a Britain v. Australia head to head at the Games than England v. Australia v. Scotland. Why is there this division?

Err, because they are 3 different countries! Northern Ireland is in there too don't forget; oh, and the Channel Islands.

You've shown you know tons about Britain in the past SwimUSA, but I feel the idea of the Commonwealth has slightly past you by.

[violet]

i personally can't see karen pickering winning over giaan rooney or elka graham in the 200 free.

jim piper is rapidly improving - he has gone sub 2:11 in the 200 breast and may also do well over 100m.

my predictions for gold medals.

Mens 50m Free - Mark Foster
Mens 100m Free - Ashley Callus
Mens 200m Free - Ian Thorpe
Mens 400m Free - Ian Thorpe
Mens 1500m Free - Grant Hackett
Mens 100m Back - Matt Welsh
Mens 200m Back - Matt Welsh
Mens 100m Breast - Jim Piper perhaps...or Morgan Knabe
Mens 100m Breast - Jim Piper
Mens 100m Fly - Geoff Huegill
Mens 200m Fly - James Hickman or Justin Norris
Mens 200 IM - Justin Norris
Mens 400 Im (not sure)

Womens 50m Free - Alison Sheppard
Womens 100m Free - Jodie Henry
Womens 200m Free - Elka Graham
Womens 400m Free - (not sure)
Womens 800m Free - Amanda Pascoe or Rebecca Cooke
Womens 100m Back - Sarah Price - Gold
Womens 200m Back - Sarah Price - Gold
Womens 100m Breast - Leisel Jones or Sarah Poewe
Womens 200m Breast - Leisel Jones
Womens 100m Fly - Petria Thomas
Womens 200m Fly - Petria Thomas

i'm not too sure about 200 and 400 IM.

Relays

Men -

Australia to clean sweep.

Women

4x100 Free - England
4x200 Free - Australia
4x100 Medley - Australia

the predictions obviously aren't set in stone...but most look likely.

they're saying that petria thomas may take home more gold than thorpy but i guess we'll have to wait and see.

[Bazza]

Thorpe definitely won't take home 7 - are we really supposed to believe he can beat Welsh? Especially with his schedule. I doubt he'll even medal in the back. Anyway there appears to be a heavy bias towards Australia in those predictions Violet! Not surprising I guess - apparently they won 23 out of 33 gold in Kuala Lumpur, although I can't wrok out why 33 events? I can only find 32.

Would anyone else like to see 4x50m relays incorporated into major longcourse championships? They would surely be about the most exciting events in the programme?

And also there is alot of coverage in the media at the moment about Adrian Turner - they're really playing up to him because of that virus he contracted a couple of years ago which didn't sound too pleasant (5 blood transfusions apparently!). Of course his sister just happens to be a TV presenter and dating James Cracknell! And apparently she used to go out with Jamie Theakston (and also spread THOSE rumours about him!):eek: ;)

[violet]

lol...no i feel my predictions are fairly realistic...not really bias - i wouldn't want to look like a fool if i said the aussie would win 99% of the medals and didn't actually do it. obviously there will be some surprises (i hope so anyway - keeps things interesting). the poms and the south africans have some classy contenders but the canadian look very weak though. i do think the aussies will dominate but they certainly won't have it all their own way. :)

[Steve]

Just a few comments (gotta hev my 2p worth :D)

1. Can't see Callus beating Thorpe to the 100 free - AFAIK he's never been under 49s; Thorpe has and proved he can race the 100m under pressure - remember the anchor leg of the Olympic 4x100m?

2. Agree with Jim Piper int eh 200 breast, but not teh 100, I reckon the 100 is between Knabe, Mew and Gibson. Also don't discout Terence Prakin in the 200

3. Sarah Ryan over Jodie Henry in the 100 free

4. Justin Norris for the men's 400IM. Parkin and Myden to challenge

5. Liz Warden/Marianne Limpert to contest the women's medleys

[Katie]

What are Rebecca Cooke's chances in the 400 free? I tend to think of her as mainly an 800 and 1500 swimmer, so I'm not sure where she stands.

[swimusa]

Originally posted by BigFish


Err, because they are 3 different countries! Northern Ireland is in there too don't forget; oh, and the Channel Islands.

You've shown you know tons about Britain in the past SwimUSA, but I feel the idea of the Commonwealth has slightly past you by.

You guys are one nation! United Kingdom, if I rememer. You might as well have England v. Ontario v. Queensland v. North Island v. Kwazulu. I thought the Act of Union of 1801 made you all one kingdom, the United Kingdom.

[swimusa]

Originally posted by Katie
What are Rebecca Cooke's chances in the 400 free? I tend to think of her as mainly an 800 and 1500 swimmer, so I'm not sure where she stands.

In 2002:

1.) Rebecca Cooke ENG 4:13.27 British Champs ~ April
2.) Jessica Delgau CAN 4:13.81 Canadian Champs ~ March
3.) Elka Graham AUS 4:14.00 Aussie Champs ~ March
4.) Amanda Pascoe AUS 4:14.10 Aussie Champs ~ March
5.) Karen Nisbet SCO 4:16.17 British Grand Prix ~ May

In 2001:

1.) Elka Graham AUS 4:11.94 Aussie Grand Prix ~ June
2.) Amanda Pascoe AUS 4:13.26 Goodwill Games ~ August
3.) Sarah D'Arcy AUS 4:13.44 Aussie Grand Prix ~ June
4.) Giaan Rooney AUS 4:13.58 World Champs ~ August
5.) Rebecca Cooke ENG 4:13.73 British Champs ~ April

[Steve]

Originally posted by bazzaroodoo
apparently they won 23 out of 33 gold in Kuala Lumpur, although I can't wrok out why 33 events? I can only find 32.

There were definitely only 32 events (according to the official results (http://www.sadec.com/KL98/Pages/Event1.htm#day11) but Australia only won 22 that I can find in that list, so it looks like you were one out on both!

However that includes a win for Trent Steed in the men's 400IM and I could have sworn he was a kiwi, but I could be getting him confused with someone else :confused:

[Steve]

Originally posted by Steve Buckley
However that includes a win for Trent Steed in the men's 400IM and I could have sworn he was a kiwi, but I could be getting him confused with someone else :confused:

Just checked on the Aussie Swimming site. He's definitley one of theirs!

[swimleeds]

1801 Act of Union combined England and Scotland into the United Kingdom of Great Britain.
The 1801 Act of Ireland unite Britain and Ireland.

However as far as sport is concerned, it depends on how the 4 countries are registered with varios sporting organisations.

In football, each country has its own FA, thus each can compete as separate entities.

For the Olympic movement, GB is the affiliated body thru the BOA.

For the Commonwealth games, which were the Empire games after 1958, each commonwealth country is allowed to enter.

Hope that clarifies the situation.

[violet]

Originally posted by Steve Buckley
Just a few comments (gotta hev my 2p worth :D)

1. Can't see Callus beating Thorpe to the 100 free - AFAIK he's never been under 49s; Thorpe has and proved he can race the 100m under pressure - remember the anchor leg of the Olympic 4x100m?

2. Agree with Jim Piper int eh 200 breast, but not teh 100, I reckon the 100 is between Knabe, Mew and Gibson. Also don't discout Terence Prakin in the 200

3. Sarah Ryan over Jodie Henry in the 100 free

4. Justin Norris for the men's 400IM. Parkin and Myden to challenge

5. Liz Warden/Marianne Limpert to contest the women's medleys

a lot of people here are saying that callus could topple thorpe in the 100...i was leaning towards ian but i guess i'd like to see ashley get up and win something too...he is a classy 100 free swimmer - but yeah, it's very hard to hold off thorpie at the end.

jim is improving rapidly...the 200 seems to be his best but i wouldn't discount him in the 100.

jodie henry is another amazing improver..she is a young swimmer with enormous potential. ryan has the experience, sure but it wouldn't surprise me if jodie got up and won instead.

[swimusa]

So in the Commonwealth in general, Scotland, England, Wales, Northern Ireland, and the islands are all separate entities each with their own separate representitives to the Commonwealth?

[Bazza]

I think it was a typo. Anyway if Australia won 23 out of 32, and England won 5, Canada 4, what does that say for the rest of the Commonwealth as far as swimming goes?:(

[Steve]

Originally posted by bazzaroodoo
I think it was a typo. Anyway if Australia won 23 out of 32, and England won 5, Canada 4, what does that say for the rest of the Commonwealth as far as swimming goes?:(

What it says is Australia are a major international swimming force, the rest of the commonwealth aren't. Simple really! The key is their strength in depth, which other nations (apart form the US, maybe Germany/Russia to some extent?) can't match.

As for the rest of the Commonwealth apart from those three, it will be a different story this time I think - Scotland should pick up at least one gold, and South Africa, Jamaica (and even Trinidad an outside chance) both have a shot, but whether this will reduce the Aussie total or just take medals form England and Canada remains to be seen.

[swimleeds]

For swimusa

Yeh, spot on. So Isle of Man and the Channel Islands have their own teams.

[swimusa]

I think only the United States and Australia are the only nations with depth in swimming (The Chinese would qualify if more than 3 swimmers had staying power over a 5 year time). I do think though that Britain has the potential to swimming status, and with Bill Sweetingham heading your program, you should only get better.

[Tezza]

England won 22 medals in KL but there were 6 fewer events - no 50's in Back, Breast or Fly. Scotland won 1 medal. Twenty two has been England's best medal haul in any single Commonwealth Games. Scotland won 6 in 1974 and Wales 5 in 1982.