Phelps Vs Hoff

[DAK]

Who will win most gold medals in Beijing?

Without looking in detail at the programme they could possibly win the following:

<u>Phelps</u>

100 and 200 Fly
200 and 400 IM
200 FC
4x100 FC Relay
4x100 Medley Relay
4x200 FC Relay
(Unlikely to swim backstroke events?)

Possible 8 golds

<u>Hoff</u>

200, 400 and 800 FC
200 and 400 IM
4x100 FC Relay
4x200 FC Relay

Possible 7 golds

I realise there will be many swimmers who will have something to say about this but what do you think?

[2.tso]

hmmmm i can see phels swimming the 100 if he breaks the wr in trials!

[Mac]

Hoff could also potentially swim the 100fc in the medley relay (she's swum some pretty decent times recently - low 54's i think) if they put Coughlin on the bk. i think Hoff stands a very good chance in all the events listed although i wouldn't say that she's as clear a favourite in any of them as, say, Phelps in the 200 fly/400IM. That said, she may well become a clear favourite if she swims really fast at the US trials (which i suspect she might well do!)

[Apostle]

I've got a feeling that Ryan Lochte is going to give Phelps a scare in he medley. He may not beat him but he looked mighty impressive at the worlds just gone.

[Stevie_k]

I think Phelps is gonna make her his biatch!

[DAK]

Hoff could also potentially swim the 100fc in the medley relay (she's swum some pretty decent times recently - low 54's i think) if they put Coughlin on the bk. i think Hoff stands a very good chance in all the events listed although i wouldn't say that she's as clear a favourite in any of them as, say, Phelps in the 200 fly/400IM. That said, she may well become a clear favourite if she swims really fast at the US trials (which i suspect she might well do!)

Very true, she is second ranked 100 FC behind Coughlin at the moment in the USA. So could possibly win 9.

I think the USA stand a better chance in the mens relays than in the womens which could be the difference.

[RaoulD]

I thought the US Swimming policy with regard to the medley was that the finals team usually comprised the best performer in each of the individual 100s. I remember the fuss that was made when Phelps beat Crocker in the 100m Fly in Athens and then Crocker swum the fly leg in the relay. I am not sure that Hoff would include the individual 100 Free if she was intending to do the 200, 400 and 800 and both IMs as well!

[Bazza]

Remember though it was Day 8, I'm sure Phelps was knackered and Crocker was the world record holder and silver medallist on the 100 and beaten by only 0.04. Who knows, maybe Phelps volunteered? Or maybe they just wanted to make Texas look good.

Does anyone know the schedule for Beijing? I would be interested to see it.

As for Phelps vs Hoff, at the moment I would bet on Phelps. He is WR holder in 4 individual events, 2nd all time in the other and USA are WR holders in all three relays. Compare to Hoff, she holds 0 WRs and is ranked 2,2,3,3 and 4 in the events listed above among current swimmers. In the relays USA hold one WR and will face stiff competition from Australia and Netherlands plus maybe GB, France and Germany.

[Baker]

I wouldn't be surprised if NBC or whatever TV company that caused morning finals made sure that the programme was laid out to make sure Phelps has the best possible chance of winning 7+ gold medals.

Isn't there 1 event between 200 back and 200 IM final? In which Ryan Lochte will be swimming both, and probably the main man to take on Phelps in the IM.

[DAK]

Remember though it was Day 8, I'm sure Phelps was knackered and Crocker was the world record holder and silver medallist on the 100 and beaten by only 0.04. Who knows, maybe Phelps volunteered? Or maybe they just wanted to make Texas look good.

Does anyone know the schedule for Beijing? I would be interested to see it.

As for Phelps vs Hoff, at the moment I would bet on Phelps. He is WR holder in 4 individual events, 2nd all time in the other and USA are WR holders in all three relays. Compare to Hoff, she holds 0 WRs and is ranked 2,2,3,3 and 4 in the events listed above among current swimmers. In the relays USA hold one WR and will face stiff competition from Australia and Netherlands plus maybe GB, France and Germany.

Good analysis. I think Hoff may well have a couple of WR's in the bag following the US Trials and be ranked #1 in a few events but I also agree that Phelps would be the best bet.

[Pink Paraffin]

I reckon that Phelps would beat Hoff head to head in a race any time ;)

[lane4]

I remember the fuss that was made when Phelps beat Crocker in the 100m Fly in Athens and then Crocker swum the fly leg in the relay.What fuss? Phelps earned the swim in the final but volunteered to give it up and let Crocker take his place. It was one of the most unselfish acts in sporting history and speaks volumes of the kind of guy he is.

[Dan_tm]

Phelps easy....

Hoff has no where near the dominance that Phelps has in the mens...As mentioned previously,Hoff holds no WR's and the the US Womens relay teams in the 4x100m Free and 4x100 medley relay have been lagging behind for years.

Hoff vs Trickett is a better contest..

Trickett is top ranked in the

50m Free
100m Free
100 Fly
and the Australian relay teams have been undefeated in the 4x100m and 4x100medley for years and based on times at the Aus Trials,they are currently top ranked in all 3 relays

If the Australian relay teams fire,then Trickett will get 6

Hoff....2 at the most.

[Linny]

Phelps easy....

Hoff has no where near the dominance that Phelps has in the mens...As mentioned previously,Hoff holds no WR's and the the US Womens relay teams in the 4x100m Free and 4x100 medley relay have been lagging behind for years.

Hoff vs Trickett is a better contest..

Trickett is top ranked in the

50m Free
100m Free
100 Fly
and the Australian relay teams have been undefeated in the 4x100m and 4x100medley for years and based on times at the Aus Trials,they are currently top ranked in all 3 relays

If the Australian relay teams fire,then Trickett will get 6

Hoff....2 at the most.I think that you are overestimating the Australians and Ms Trickett (because they have had their trials) and underestimating the American's and Ms Hoff (because they have not). I believe that Ms Hoff holds no world records because by all accounts we haven't seen her fully prepared to race this year and for one reason or another the world records in her events have come tumbling down. I don't think that it is unreasonable to suspect that she may swim faster than she has swum before in the same way as so many others have when suited and prepared this year.

[DAK]

I think that you are overestimating the Australians and Ms Trickett (because they have had their trials) and underestimating the American's and Ms Hoff (because they have not). I believe that Ms Hoff holds no world records because by all accounts we haven't seen her fully prepared to race this year and for one reason the world records in her events have come tumbling down. I don't think that it is unreasonable to suspect that she may swim faster than she has swum before in the same way as so many others have when suited and prepared this year.

I would concur with Linny's comments. Katie Hoff is currently ranked # 1 in the world on 200 FC despite not racing tapered yet. She also has a shot at 200 and 400 IM WR's as well as 400 and 800 FC world records at the US trials.

Looking forward to seeing her go head to head with Adlington and Ziegler on 800 FC in Beijing.

[Dan_tm]

Why have I overestimated Libby Trickett....Before Trials ...After Trials....Before LZR...after LZR...Libby Trickett is the most dominent female swimmer in the World today...this year..last year etc etc ......She won the 50m/100m and 100m Fly at the 2007 Worlds and is faster this year.....
This has nothing to do with Australian Trial or US Trial form.....Trickett is a far dominant female swimmer than Hoff has proven to be.

[RaoulD]

What fuss? Phelps earned the swim in the final but volunteered to give it up and let Crocker take his place. It was one of the most unselfish acts in sporting history and speaks volumes of the kind of guy he is.

It wasn't Phelps but there were views expressed that it would be wrong to pick Crocker ahead of him for the relay. The concern was that it undermined the objective selection criteria that had been applied by the US Team coaches in the past. I remember Phelps effectively ended the debate by giving the place to Crocker and was rightly praised for it. I note that the current US relay team selection policy is now at the coaches' discretion - no doubt to avoid a repeat of the debate that took place before Phelps made his unselfish gesture in Athens.

[selkie]

The rules have said that US relay selections were coach's pick for a long time, and the coaches have frequently used their discretion for good or ill. Jenny Thompson over Christina Teuscher in the 800 FR finals in 1996, leaving Gary Hall off the finals squad for the 400 FR in Athens, and Natalie Coughlin's seeming permanent place on the 800 FR squads these days even though she doesn't swim the 200 free at selection meets all come to mind.

[RaoulD]

The rules have said that US relay selections were coach's pick for a long time, and the coaches have frequently used their discretion for good or ill. Jenny Thompson over Christina Teuscher in the 800 FR finals in 1996, leaving Gary Hall off the finals squad for the 400 FR in Athens, and Natalie Coughlin's seeming permanent place on the 800 FR squads these days even though she doesn't swim the 200 free at selection meets all come to mind.

I thought there was a difference in policy between the freestyle relay and the medley teams anyway. I also am pretty sure that Cristina Teuscher swum the 4X200m in Atlanta with Jenny Thompson. My recollection is that the rules themselves actually said very little about the selection for the relay team which is why I was interested to note that the discretion and the factors to be taken into account are now spelt out.

[Bazza]

On the subject of Trickett vs Hoff, Trickett won 5 golds in Melbourne (3 individual, 2 relay).

Hoff won 3 gold (200, 400 IM, 800 free relay). She was 4th in the 200 where she has since been faster than Pellegrini, and she was 4th in the 400 where she has since been 3rd fastest swim of all time. She didn't swim the 800 but is now ranked 4th on best all time out of current swimmers. With Manaudou apparently out of the 200 and 800, she has a great chance of medalling in all three of these events, effectively being ranked 2nd on the 200 and 3rd on the other two.

If you throw in that those worlds were in Australia which doubtless gave Trickett a boost, I think it's a tough call. Hoff may lose out if she can't make the two 400m relays, but I wouldn't bet against her winning 5 individual medals, and for me that would be a better achievement that Trickett winning 3+3.

[selkie]

The spots for the medley have traditionally been assigned for prelims/finals based on individual event swims, but the team rules have officially been coach's pick just like the free relays have been.

My mistake with Teuscher. I was thinking of a different athlete there.