Autumn/Winter 2011-2012

[MadHighroller]

Originally Posted by Wildswimmer

Claims no doubt made by the same "experts" who forecast our 1976-style bbq summer

I wouldn't take the slightest notice of any "forecasts" in the Excess, Daily Wail, nor any other tabloid.



What they are doing is misquoting the "official" confirmation of what has been suspected for some years now, that the current run of very cold UK winters and poor summers has been down to an extended period of low solar activity, that looks as though it is turning into a Grand Minimum that could last for decades.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research...ar-variability

Given the pattern that has become obvious over the past four years, I'd personally recommend everyone to assume the coming winter is going to be every bit as cold as the last, and lay in fuel or make sure budget payment schemes are in credit as much as possible. Bear in mind that autumn '10 was warm at times until late November, when the cold hit overnight. The present patterning is very similar.

I hope very much that I'm proved wrong.

Wildswimmer Pete

NB Don't forget that "Call me Dave" has slashed £50 from the winter fuel payments to pensioners and other most vulnerable members of society.

Okay, Pete.... Can you tell us.... are we in for a white christmas ???

[Dave_G]

[QUOTE N.B Don't forget that "Call me Dave" has slashed £50 from the winter fuel payments to pensioners and other most vulnerable members of society.[/QUOTE]

The caring and compassionate side of our politicians? A few years ago, rightly or wrongly, there was a perception that the Conservative party were 'nasty', which was one of the factors that led to Blair's victories in 1997, 2001 and 2005. By cutting winter fuel payments, this accolade may well be regained, only this time it is likely to be shared by their coalition partners. I do not recall a debate on this in parliament, followed by a vote?

[Big Nev]

Originally Posted by Dave_G

[QUOTE N.B Don't forget that "Call me Dave" has slashed £50 from the winter fuel payments to pensioners and other most vulnerable members of society.

The caring and compassionate side of our politicians? A few years ago, rightly or wrongly, there was a perception that the Conservative party were 'nasty', which was one of the factors that led to Blair's victories in 1997, 2001 and 2005. By cutting winter fuel payments, this accolade may well be regained, only this time it is likely to be shared by their coalition partners. I do not recall a debate on this in parliament, followed by a vote?[/QUOTE]

I feel this is one of the many benefits that should be means tested.

I bet a lot of pensioners do not need this benefit. If it was directed to the most needy it could be adjusted in level and value.

[Big Nev]

Originally Posted by Dave_G

[QUOTE N.B Don't forget that "Call me Dave" has slashed £50 from the winter fuel payments to pensioners and other most vulnerable members of society.

I feel this is one of the many benefits that should be means tested.

I bet a lot of pensioners do not need this benefit. If it was directed to the most needy it could be adjusted in level and value.

[Alan Rowson]

Originally Posted by Big Nev

I feel this is one of the many benefits that should be means tested.

I bet a lot of pensioners do not need this benefit. If it was directed to the most needy it could be adjusted in level and value.

I rely on this to put fuel in my car over winter to keep me warm

I had not spotted anywhere the benefit had been cut, I'll have to do some searching

[Big Nev]

Originally Posted by Alan Rowson

I rely on this to put fuel in my car over winter to keep me warm

Would that be the Jag, Alan?

Might manage a couple of miles with the winter fuel money!!

[Wildswimmer]

Originally Posted by Big Nev

I bet a lot of pensioners do not need this benefit. If it was directed to the most needy it could be adjusted in level and value.

Mine was spent on gas and electricity thanks to huge fuel bills inflated by the extreme cold that is likely to be repeated this coming winter.

I don't think the fuel allowance should be paid to those who choose to emigrate to warmer climes.

Wildswimmer Pete

[Alan Rowson]

Pete, I don't follow weather patterns etc. so what do you think of http://www.thegwpf.org/science-news/...-warming-.html

[Alan Rowson]

Originally Posted by Big Nev

Would that be the Jag, Alan?

Might manage a couple of miles with the winter fuel money!!

No it would be the wife's Mercedes

[Wildswimmer]

I don't use short-term phenomena but base my opinions on history, and solar Grand Minima have on two occasions led to lengthy periods of cold winters. The Little Ice Age of the 1600-1700s (Maunder Minimum) and another around the 1820s coinciding with the Dalton Minimum. We seem to be now entering another Grand Minimum (won't be definite for a year or so yet) and cold winters are making an appearence. Too much for coincidence.

Wildswimmer Pete

[Wildswimmer]

Originally Posted by MadHighroller

Okay, Pete.... Can you tell us.... are we in for a white christmas ???

No-one can forecast day-to-day weather from two months away because whether you use modelling (and other "approved" techniques) or pattern matching it's impossible to forecast with any accuracy more than seven days ahead. Beyond that it becomes more or less educated guessing.

Given that, cold winters now seem to be the rule rather than the exception and if the current solar minimum does turn out to be the beginning of a Grand Minimum then cold, snowy conditions will become more frequent. Those snowy scenes on Christmas cards were in fact inspired by the very cold, snowy winters associated with the Dalton Minimum during the early 1800s.

Wildswimmer Pete

[Pandi]

Originally Posted by Wildswimmer

No-one can forecast day-to-day weather from two months away because whether you use modelling (and other "approved" techniques) or pattern matching it's impossible to forecast with any accuracy more than seven days ahead. Beyond that it becomes more or less educated guessing.

Given that, cold winters now seem to be the rule rather than the exception and if the current solar minimum does turn out to be the beginning of a Grand Minimum then cold, snowy conditions will become more frequent. Those snowy scenes on Christmas cards were in fact inspired by the very cold, snowy winters associated with the Dalton Minimum during the early 1800s.

Wildswimmer Pete

Mother nature Pete.Swift family has left the comfort of BH11 eaves for unknown post code in South Africa,this is the latest time over the past 4/5 years they have deserted the 2nd home.Leaves more craneflys and midges to eat on cycle ride tho.

[Leprechaun]

Originally Posted by Wildswimmer

We seem to be now entering another Grand Minimum (won't be definite for a year or so yet) and cold winters are making an appearence. Too much for coincidence.

Wildswimmer Pete

But lets look on the bright side for once, won't the World Cold Water Swimming Championships be worth entering...

http://www.winterswimming2012.com/

Life is too short to worry about when the next Grand Minimum will hit Cold water swimming is known to be good for all of us - lets just get in and enjoy it...

[MadHighroller]

Originally Posted by Wildswimmer

I don't use short-term phenomena but base my opinions on history, and solar Grand Minima have on two occasions led to lengthy periods of cold winters. The Little Ice Age of the 1600-1700s (Maunder Minimum) and another around the 1820s coinciding with the Dalton Minimum. We seem to be now entering another Grand Minimum (won't be definite for a year or so yet) and cold winters are making an appearence. Too much for coincidence.

Wildswimmer Pete

I find this really interesting. My other half has a friend that doesnt believe ' Global warming ' is do to with Human C02 emissions etc..... He believes it's all just cycles....(not bicycles), And as you say history repeats itself.

Although Pete when I was a kid, I was born in 1975, we had hot summers and cold winters.... lots of white christmases... we moved from surrey to penzance in 1983.... still the following 3 or so years were heavy snow and possibly white christmases..... even in deep south west England !

After 1986/87... I dont remember anymore snow in cornwall. Not untill the past couple of years.

Not sure what I'm getting at really.......... just I find it interesting and I do wonder if it is cycles....

[Wildswimmer]

Originally Posted by MadHighroller

Not sure what I'm getting at really.......... just I find it interesting and I do wonder if it is cycles....

There are many interlinked cycles but we've now complicated things by pumping CO2 into the atmosphere with unknown consequences. It's well known that climate change has already caused major shifts in global weather patterns and there are now signs we are influencing the thermohaline circulation - the global system of interconnected ocean currents of which the North Atlantic Drift (Gulf Stream) is part. If the NAD shuts down (it's already showing signs of slowing) then the UK's climate will become something like that of Newfoundland which shares our latitude.

Wildswimmer Pete